Apr. 04, 2008
Summary
It is going for a spinoff some time next year. It becomes quite interesting given current market price(around $9- $10). It has 3 segments. The mobile device, home networking, enterprise networking. Since it will spinoff the mobile device segment, let put the later two together and call it network segment. The network segment is running OK. Don't really need to put much time on it. Only the mobile device segment is in trouble.
Facts:
1. Book value of MOT is around (15.4-4.5)/2.25 = $4.87
2. Around 2% annual dividend payment rate given current price.
3. In 2007, net loss for Mobile device segment is 1.2B. Subtract one time charge of 0.28B. it comes at 0.92B.
4. Share outstanding 2.25B. Current market price $9 - $10.
5. Mobile device revenue sale of 2007 compared with 2006. Decreased by 58m units.
Year Revenue Income Units ASP Income/unit Total market Share
2006 28.4B 2.7B 217.4m $130.6 $12.4 980m 22%
2007 19.0B -0.92B 159.1m $119.4 -$5.8 1140m 14%
(ASP: Average Selling Price)
6. At the same period, Nokia sold 437m units in 2007 compared with 348m units in 2006. Increased by 89m units.
Year Revenue Income Units ASP Income/unit Total market Share
2006 24.8B 4.1B 348m $71.2 $11.8 980m 36%
2007 25.0B 5.4B 437m $57.2 $12.4 1140m 38%
7. At the same period, Sony Ericsson sold 103.4m units compared with 74.8m units in 2006. A increase of 28.6m units. (Data in eu)
Year Revenue Income Units ASP Income/unit Total market Share
2006 11B 1.3B 74.8m $146 $16.8 980m 7.6%
2007 12.9B 1.5B 103.4m $125 $14.9 1140m 9.0%
8. iPhone sales for 2007 is around 4m units.
9. In 2007, it lost more than 2 billion sales in China 2007. Around 40% drop from 2006. But this data includes network segment, the number of mobile device may even higher. (It market share might be 10.8% in China for 2007, down from 15.9% for 2006. )
10. Mobile device segment past earning data:
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Ave
Income 0.48B 1.7B 2.2B 2.7B -0.9B
Per share 0.21 0.76 0.98 1.20 -0.41 0.55
11. Network segment past earning data:
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Ave
Income 0.83 1.77B 2.05B 1.72B 1.9B
Per share 0.37 0.79 0.91 0.76 0.84 0.73
Analysis:
1. Everyone suffered ASP drop from 2006 to 2007. MOT by 8.6%, Nokia by 19.6%, Sony Ericsson by 14.4%. So ASP price drop is not a reason for bad performance. Actually MOT's drop is the smallest. This maybe is one of the real reason that they can't sell more. At lest in China, their higher price than Nokia make them lost contracts from China mobile etc.
2. iPhone should have some effect on MOT's sale since they are both aimed to higher end of users. However, Sony Ericsson's ASP is even higher than MOT's and they were doing great. Plus the iPhone volume is still very low yet. So competition from iPhone is not a excuse for bad performance of MOT. Also iPhone is only in the market for half year and is not selling in China yet.
3. One big reason of their current trouble is lack of new products. In this highly competitive and fast changing market it is a big mistake. It says they are preparing a new platform which delayed its new product time.
4. The network segment average earning is 0.73 pre share. Take 15 time as P/E ratio, it has a fair value of $10.95. Some how it is valuated at $8 in the market now.
5. The Mobile device segment in 2006, it is valuated around $17 pre share by the market. Now someone says it only worth $1 pre share. Others others say it worth $5 pre share. Take its average earning with 15 time PE ratio, it could worth 0.55x15 = $8.25.
Conclusion:
If the Mobile device segment worth $5 a share. It is a bargain. However, to evaluate its value, I still have two questions in my mind: 1. Despite of no new product, is there a real reason hiding there for their big lose in 2007 that we don't know? 2. Is their trouble temporary or permanent? Hopefully more information will be available when the spinoff is officially announced.
Summary
It is going for a spinoff some time next year. It becomes quite interesting given current market price(around $9- $10). It has 3 segments. The mobile device, home networking, enterprise networking. Since it will spinoff the mobile device segment, let put the later two together and call it network segment. The network segment is running OK. Don't really need to put much time on it. Only the mobile device segment is in trouble.
Facts:
1. Book value of MOT is around (15.4-4.5)/2.25 = $4.87
2. Around 2% annual dividend payment rate given current price.
3. In 2007, net loss for Mobile device segment is 1.2B. Subtract one time charge of 0.28B. it comes at 0.92B.
4. Share outstanding 2.25B. Current market price $9 - $10.
5. Mobile device revenue sale of 2007 compared with 2006. Decreased by 58m units.
Year Revenue Income Units ASP Income/unit Total market Share
2006 28.4B 2.7B 217.4m $130.6 $12.4 980m 22%
2007 19.0B -0.92B 159.1m $119.4 -$5.8 1140m 14%
(ASP: Average Selling Price)
6. At the same period, Nokia sold 437m units in 2007 compared with 348m units in 2006. Increased by 89m units.
Year Revenue Income Units ASP Income/unit Total market Share
2006 24.8B 4.1B 348m $71.2 $11.8 980m 36%
2007 25.0B 5.4B 437m $57.2 $12.4 1140m 38%
7. At the same period, Sony Ericsson sold 103.4m units compared with 74.8m units in 2006. A increase of 28.6m units. (Data in eu)
Year Revenue Income Units ASP Income/unit Total market Share
2006 11B 1.3B 74.8m $146 $16.8 980m 7.6%
2007 12.9B 1.5B 103.4m $125 $14.9 1140m 9.0%
8. iPhone sales for 2007 is around 4m units.
9. In 2007, it lost more than 2 billion sales in China 2007. Around 40% drop from 2006. But this data includes network segment, the number of mobile device may even higher. (It market share might be 10.8% in China for 2007, down from 15.9% for 2006. )
10. Mobile device segment past earning data:
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Ave
Income 0.48B 1.7B 2.2B 2.7B -0.9B
Per share 0.21 0.76 0.98 1.20 -0.41 0.55
11. Network segment past earning data:
Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Ave
Income 0.83 1.77B 2.05B 1.72B 1.9B
Per share 0.37 0.79 0.91 0.76 0.84 0.73
Analysis:
1. Everyone suffered ASP drop from 2006 to 2007. MOT by 8.6%, Nokia by 19.6%, Sony Ericsson by 14.4%. So ASP price drop is not a reason for bad performance. Actually MOT's drop is the smallest. This maybe is one of the real reason that they can't sell more. At lest in China, their higher price than Nokia make them lost contracts from China mobile etc.
2. iPhone should have some effect on MOT's sale since they are both aimed to higher end of users. However, Sony Ericsson's ASP is even higher than MOT's and they were doing great. Plus the iPhone volume is still very low yet. So competition from iPhone is not a excuse for bad performance of MOT. Also iPhone is only in the market for half year and is not selling in China yet.
3. One big reason of their current trouble is lack of new products. In this highly competitive and fast changing market it is a big mistake. It says they are preparing a new platform which delayed its new product time.
4. The network segment average earning is 0.73 pre share. Take 15 time as P/E ratio, it has a fair value of $10.95. Some how it is valuated at $8 in the market now.
5. The Mobile device segment in 2006, it is valuated around $17 pre share by the market. Now someone says it only worth $1 pre share. Others others say it worth $5 pre share. Take its average earning with 15 time PE ratio, it could worth 0.55x15 = $8.25.
Conclusion:
If the Mobile device segment worth $5 a share. It is a bargain. However, to evaluate its value, I still have two questions in my mind: 1. Despite of no new product, is there a real reason hiding there for their big lose in 2007 that we don't know? 2. Is their trouble temporary or permanent? Hopefully more information will be available when the spinoff is officially announced.
摩托罗拉中国的艰难时世
作者：冯大刚 石… 文章来源：经济观察报 更新时间：2007-8-6 12:21:48
|
7月31日，天津塘沽，摩托罗拉工厂前面稀稀拉拉地停着三五辆出租车。开出租车的樊师傅说，一年前这个门口还经常聚集着二三十辆出租车"趴活"。"那时候厂子红火，摩托罗拉的人一出来就招手打车。"
位于天津市开发区的这家工厂是摩托罗拉全球最大的手机制造厂，也是开发区里最大的外资工厂。在过去的15年里，"天津经济看开发区，开发区看摩托罗拉"的口号几乎每个天津人都耳熟能详。不过，这家工厂正在悄悄发生变化。
两周前，摩托罗拉刚公布了最新的连续第二季度亏损的财报。最引人注目的是，这家以手机闻名于世的公司的手机业务 收入比去年同期下滑了40%，该业务盈利从去年二季度的8.04亿美元变为亏损2.64亿美元。当季摩托罗拉的手机出货量仅为3550万部，首次将其市场 占有率方面亚军宝座让给了韩国三星电子(3740万部)。
本报记者走访了摩托罗拉中国的天津工厂、渠道代理、第三方资询公司等多方人士，企图探寻这家在中国的改革开放发展史上曾业绩显赫的跨国公司其业绩下滑的背后有着怎样的故事，并把目光投向其更深远的未来。
摩托中国
高达40%的手机业务下降给天津工厂带来的最直接变化当然是开工减少。一位在天津工厂已经工作三年的员工小欧说，工厂依然正常开工，但工人的收入比以前少了不少。"以前收入3000元，其中加班费就有1500元，现在加班少多了。"
与收入一同变化的是员工的自豪感。很多年来，摩托罗拉都是天津开发区最大和最好的企业，但半年来，这个位置正在被新成立的丰田厂取代。小欧说他感觉连"食堂都不如以前好吃"。
天津开发区管委会的一位工作人员说，摩托罗拉天津厂2005年产量是4000余万台，2006年为6000余万台。虽然出货量仍在增长，但摩托罗拉在天津开发区总手机产量中的比重在降低——这些数据是摩托罗拉从未公开过的。
作为一家业务遍布全球的跨国企业，摩托罗拉也从未公布过他们在中国市场的其他关键数据。在全球性衰退出现后，这家公司的中国管理团队只是表示，摩托罗拉目前在中国市场的销售情况相对较好，销量下滑集中在欧洲和亚洲其他地区。
不过，长期关注国内手机市场的BDA电信咨询公司分析师杨宇新说，他掌握的数据显示，摩托罗拉中国销售从2007年开始明显下滑，之前连续几年则表现平稳。2007年1月，摩托罗拉中国占有率还有21%，到5月已下滑至17%。
同一份报告还显示，同期诺基亚也从31%下滑至29%，三星则上升2%国产手机整体上升，中兴、华为、海尔等受益最大。这样的升降态势表明，影响中国市场的因素与影响国际市场的因素并不雷同。
创新滞后
杨宇新说，诺基亚、摩托罗拉下降，国产手机受益的主要原因是，2007年上半年国内运营商为了开辟农村等新兴市场，加大了集中采购力度，并且采购机型集中在中低端产品。而这些型号的价格分布于国产手机的传统优势区间。
但他预测说，到下半年诺基亚将挽回份额，而摩托罗拉则继续下滑——虽然下滑速度开始趋缓。这是因为，诺基亚拥有更好的运营商关系，而且有更多的低价新品将要推出。这两个方面却并不是摩托罗拉的强项。
前两个季度，诺基亚共推出以及将要推出的产品39款，其中低端产品12款；摩托罗拉产品共25款，但低端产品仅有5款。
2004年8月，摩托罗拉RAZR(锋利)系列手机上市，立刻就成为超级畅销品。
但杨宇新说，从RAZRV3系列之后，摩托罗拉并没有推出创新的产品，这样就限制了用户群。同时，V3系列的用户忠诚度比摩托罗拉预想中较低。此外的问题是，摩托罗拉新品种类较少，面市周期长，而中国消费者的心理普遍倾向于购买新品。
渠道困局
在渠道方面，摩托罗拉并没有遭遇到三星那样突然更换代理商的动荡，但这家公司在中国最大的全国代理商之一中邮普 泰的内部人士对本报抱怨说，第二代锋利手机并没有取得预想中的成功。"消费者已经不像三年前那样一拥而上来抢购这些超薄手机了。"他说。2007年5月， 中邮普泰分别与诺基亚、摩托罗拉签订了未来一年25亿美元、23亿美元的手机订单。
与诺基亚相同，摩托罗拉在中国的渠道一直以来也以借助有实力的全国代理商为主。但依靠"国代"然后靠大代理商向 下分销的模式存在两个弊端，即成本过高(代理商靠"搬箱子"就能获得15%的利润)和无法深入中低端市场 (代理商大多集中在一二级城市)。这样的情况促使外资巨头们从2002年前后开始了自建渠道的赛跑。
在中国的手机渠道中，目前被公认为最有效的是FD(直控分销商)模式，即由厂商在特定区域建立运营平台，由运营 平台直接去发展这个区域内的分销模式。2003年诺基亚首推该模式并大获成功，随后摩托罗拉也复制了这一模式。更为激进的是，2006年前的7月，摩托罗 拉在中国上海推出了全球首家旗舰店，并宣布了耗资过亿的两年500家专卖店计划。
不过现在看起来，在4-6级中小城市，诺基亚的自建渠道收效更大。诺基亚大中国区高级副总裁赵科林说，到2006年底中国有46555个销售手机的零售点，而诺基亚已经覆盖了其中的4万个。
另外一个重要的新渠道是"直供"，即摩托罗拉、诺基亚等厂家直接向苏宁、国美等大型家电卖场供货。4月12日，苏宁宣布今年内为摩托罗拉在其100家旗舰店中开设店中店，而摩托罗拉将提供更优惠的价格和其他优惠。此前，诺基亚也与国美达成了类似合作。
好消息是，这种店中店目前表现良好。8月2日，苏宁电器采购中心常务副总监王哲告诉本报，100家店中店现已建 设了二十六七家。他说，尽管摩托罗拉在苏宁手机整体销售中出现了下降 (由去年的24%降为今年的18%)，"但在有'店中店'的旗舰店，这个比例能达到22%。"目前，苏宁渠道已经占到了摩托罗拉中国销售的10%，如果加 上国美则可占到20%。
复兴计划
很少有人相信，摩托罗拉会就此一蹶不振。理由是，这家创建已经接近80年的公司仍然拥有深厚的技术积累和强势的品牌。那些抱怨连天的投资者们所需要的其实只是一个具体的复兴计划。
在中国这个制造基地和大市场，摩托罗拉正在推出一些积极措施以提升市场份额和利润率。其中之一是，该公司正研究在天津开发区设立一个新的全球采购中心的可行性。向本报透露此消息的开发区管委会官员说，采购中心将降低摩托罗拉手机的成本，有利于其全球手机业务扭亏。
此外，摩托罗拉也承诺推出更多的新机型。这家公司的CEO詹德说，摩托罗拉将向新兴的发展中国家市场推出更多入门级手机，并加速在手机中采用更为廉价的Linux操作系统，这些机型将能尽快打破摩托罗拉手机业务的持续低迷状况。
到目前为止，摩托罗拉仍对其中国业绩和计划保持沉默。不过2007年9月，摩托罗拉将迎来其进入中国第20周年，对一家20年来备受尊敬的外资企业来说，那或许才是宣布重振方案的最佳时刻。
I found an analysis (two parts) of MOT from a financial blog:
Part 1: http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/03/are-motorola-shares-bargain-at-9-bucks.html Part 2: http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/2008/04/motorola-valuation-part-2.html Quinton
Updated:
Apr. 9, 2008
The second part with the calculation is really good! I found I made a big mistake that not include tax in my calculation. Really thankful for this. Adjusted:
4. The network segment average earning is 0.73 pre share. Take 35% as tax rate and 15 time as P/E ratio, it has a fair value of $7.12. It is valuated at $8 in the market now which is quite fair to me. 5. The Mobile device segment average earning is 0.55. Take 35% as tax rate and 15 time as P/E ratio, it could worth $5.36. 6. Adding 4 and 5, it comes as a fair value of $12.48. A bargain price should be $7.49. I think they might never be that low. About this guy's calculation. He is using quite different way to calc to the value. Very interesting and inspiring.
I have checked his method. He is using Cash + Earning power to calc the value. I need to study more before I can tell his calc is better or not. But apparentally there is two item in his formula is quite questionable.
1. He is using current yearly revenue minus 5% as future revenue. I thought it would be more accurate to use average revenue in past years. It current yearly revenue is much lower than previous years. The formula tend to put a lower value on it by using this data. I found in a lot of case, the companies in trouble are getting higher revenue than previous years while income is down. If using this formula, it would be more likely be overvalued. A company might grow a lot within past several years. It is hard to estimate future revenue level. Might need do it case by case. At least in MOT's, I feel it should be better to use average revenue from past years. If it stay at its current revenue level, it might not be able to make any profit at all. 2. He is using half of the best profit margin to calc the earning. It definitely better to use average data. For example a company could have a average of 15% profit margin while the highest as 20%. Take half of the best it comes 10% which the company may never go that low. On the other side a company could make 20% profit margin in one year while all other years it might only seat at 5%. Use half of the best will come as 10%. It is inaccurate as well. If take my adjustment, its estimated revenue should be 19.38B. It is profit margin should be 5.58%. Using this formula it comes a fair value of $3.97. Plus the $8 he calculated, it comes a fair value of $11.97. Other thing is he is using 2313B as the dilute share number which is last year end data, while I am using current number which is 2250B. If the current data in his formula, it should comes as $12.23 as fair value. |
Mar. 10, 2011
At Jan. 2011 the spin off was done. The mobile segment now is Motorola Mobility Inc (NYSE:MMI) currently trading at $25.21. The network segment now is Motorola Solutions Inc.(NYSE:MSI) currently trading at $40.30.
The spin off is for every 8 share of original MOT, it gets one share of MMI. After that the MOT go through 1:7 reverse split in to MSI.
So current price for original holder is MSI/7 + MMI/8= $5.75 + $3.15 = $8.90.
No comments:
Post a Comment