all in EUR:
Check list:
1.Major Business.
(1)Mobile device: 70%. 1) Mobile phone: 50% 2) Smart Phone and tablets: 50%
(2)Telecom Network Equipment: 30% through Nokia-Siemens
(3)NAVTEQ: 2%. Map system
(3)NAVTEQ: 2%. Map system
2.Price, Book value, Share outstanding, Market Cap.
Recent Price 5.87($8.34). Book: 2.30. Shares: 3.74B. Market Cap: 22.4B
3.Current ratio. Debt/Current Asset ratio. Debt maturity and interest. Inventory level. Cash level.
Current Asset: 27.1B. Current liability: 15.4B. Current ratio: 1.54. Debt: 5.3B Inventory 2.5B. Cash: 12.3B. Net cash: 7.0B.
4.Revenue, Earning, Deficit check. FCF, Dividend history, Dividend policy, Revenue/Price ratio.
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 averageRevenue 42.5 41 50.7 51 41.1
Income 1.85 1.8 4.0 7.2 4.3
Minority Interest 0.50 0.63 0.10 0.46 0.06
Income/share 0.50 0.48 1.07 1.83 1.05 0.99
FCF 4.1 2.69 2.18 7.0 3.31 3.86
Dividend/share 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.53 0.43
Net cash: 7.0 3.7 2.4 10.7 8.3
Debt: 5.3 5.2 4.5 1.1 0.3
Employees 132k 123k 126k 112k 65k
R&D 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.6 3.9
5.SG&A, R&D expense.
6.Insider holding. Management compensation. Options.
2010 Total compensation for 9 Executive is 5.6m cash + 3.5m stocks, options.
2009 Total compensation for 11 Executive is 6.1m cash + 4.6m stocks, options.
Insider holds very few shares of the company. Morgan Stanley is the biggest share holder holds around 2.6% at Dec. 2009.
Options are almost all above current price.
7. Insider trading info, stock buy back.
From 2005 to 2008 bought back 865m share by 14.7B . Average 17/share.
10.Employee numbers. Revenue/Employee. Compensation/Employee.
Whether employees are unionized, etc.
11.Industry comparison.
iPhone, Android, cheap china mobile phones.
12.Major events.
1) 2007 Created Nokia Siemens Networks joint venture.
2) 2008 Acquired NAVTEQ for 5.3B
3) 2010 Stephen Elop Joined Nokia as new CEO. 2011 he decided to use windows phone 7 in Nokia smartphone.13.Comments.
1)The business is complicated and I don't have a clear picture of the business. There are ton's of data to be read. Also we can't rely much on its past data for the nature of its business. The usefulness of the data are very limited.
2)Pure from past data point, the income, FCF, balance sheet looks good in current price. In fact, the stock does look cheap in those data( P/E < 6 and P/FCF < 10 ). However, the recent 2 years income are down. If it can keep current revenue and profit, then it is still in an acceptable price range. The dividend is very good as well.
3) It has been able go generate quite a lot cash in recent years. Only at 2008, it spent quite a bit to acquire NAVTEQ.
14. Conclusions
Pure from financial data point of view, it does look cheap to me. However, I probably will not get in with some reasons:
1) I wasn't able to understand the business very well. Although it seems only have pretty simple 3 segments. Financially it is complicated. I only get in those companies that I am capable to understand well.
2) There is much uncertainty ahead. I do not know whether the current price have provided enough margin of safety for those uncertainty. While on smaller companies, some times I can figure it out.
In a word, if it is a small cap company which I can handle and is more stable, I probably will get in.
